Plan for Next Week

1. The U.S. indices are broken. I will look for a retrace to short with SPY Puts. Look at the big red candles on the daily. We could go down to 1110 or so in 2 weeks. First stop would be the 50 Day SMA at 165 or so. Look at the Copper chart for one. NYA down volume is indicating a correction. BSE (Bombay) is lining up for a classic 5 DMA short. BVSP (Brazil) is badly broken and so is Shanghai.

Basically, I am looking for 1-3 days of consolidation in the indices, with a range of 1175 to 1200, and then a fall apart. PC ratio spiked on Friday and 5 DMA of TRIN is also indicating a bounce. However, at this point (as indicated earlier), I think the bounce should be shorted. Silver and Gold should do what they can in the next week, after which it may be too late. I don't see Gold going much over 1225 (previous high) on this move.

2. Will hold Silver on a tight leash and expect to sell it within the next 2-4 days. Ideally, indices would go mildly higher in the next 2-3 days and Silver would rocket to 19.5 or so. If U.S. indices collapse to 1110, Silver cannot hold out. Fall/late summer may be the next time to buy PMs.

3. AUDUSD bull flag failure indicates that it may fall to long-term lower trend line. Holding a small long for now, but divided on this. Long-term, I am an AUDUSD bull. Short-term (2-3 days) I'm not sure. May cut it loose. Will update over the weekend.

4. EURUSD: looking for at least 1.3380 to short. The USD chart looks like it could be setting up for a nice, swing long, perhaps as a sell the news reaction when the Greek bailout news comes out.