Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Post on Carl Futia's Site

Note the huge discrepancy between TICK and price in the last 10 minutes. Here's a chart: http://tinyurl.com/29l66em SPX is in green. This happens when a few stocks that comprise a large part of the index are sold heavily. This is quite easy to do, and drives fear into the market, brings the narrower indices down. This will increase volatility, lots of people will buy Puts, which will be shorted. You could also look at the difference between the RUT and SPX in the last 5 minutes, and it would show you the same thing. Note the ending dip in the SPX and how you don't see it in the RUT? Options Opex is next Friday.

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