Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Biggest Errors This Year (So far)

1. AAPL Options - got the direction right (roughly) but didn't figure on the loss in implied volatility after earnings. I bought August and October calls at 256 and 260 the day after very impressive earnings (August 20th or so) and sold at 263-264 about a week later, but for a big loss. The loss was mostly because of the huge loss in implied volatility in my August calls.

2. Silver futures - Position size too large. I was trying to make a quick buck, catching a falling knife with futures. My position size was too large and so I couldn't think clearly in the face of losses. I panicked and sold for a loss. This happened two or three times I think.

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