ST and LT Outlook

Indices

NAS is looking screwed. NAAD not good. $RUT (index of truth) looking bad.

NYA 13-34 SMA looking very bearish. Indicating any bounce to 34 MA should be shorted.

ST we will likely fall further to 1040-1060 zone. But then we should bounce and possibly all the way to 1130. TICK was not weak on sell off Friday, probably a Cramer (Sell equities call on Thursday) induced retail sell off. No broad selling. Shanghai is showing ST bottoming action. TNX will likely make a higher low. Daily TYX showing huge MACD positive divergence. 5 MA of TRIN went from overbought to oversold in one day (indicating a ST bottom is close). PC ratio still not toppy, especially in the 10 and 13 MAs. Monday/ Tuesday lows could be bought. ST we should see 1050-1060 SPX, IMO, which could be bought.

But no point selling equities long-term at these levels (1040-1060 SPX). Higher levels expected.

Russell is lagging and will continue to lag now. Shorting Russell will give better bang for buck. (TWM)

I will trade two things. Probably TWM (to short) or BGU (to long) and EURUSD.

Revised: On Monday, I may go long TMV or Short TLT via Jan 2010 Puts.

Easy to get caught in the ST, when trading too much, and not see the LT. Trees not the forest.

Currencies

Dollar will fall more. EURUSD will come down to 1.27 and then up higher. I will long 1.27. Target is still 1.35. This may support the US indices for now. USD should be sold at 83.3 - 84. 81.5 is solid support. (1.316 on EURUSD). Then 79.9. (1.3510 on EURUSD). One of those will be the top for EURUSD.

PMs

Gold is going to 1170 minimum. 1195 - 1205 is short zone. Stop at 1210.

Silver to 17.6 on Monday, small bounce, then 16.5 in a week or so. Then down more later this year.

Details (unformatted)

Equities

Up until August 10-20.

Then look to short U.S. Indices.

This is still a bear market.

Dow 5000 means SP 450. A lot of people are calling for that.

I am not dismissing that scenario.

Looking at following scenario:

SPX 1220 (May 2010) - 1040 - 1130 - 1010 (July 2010) - 1090 (July14) - 1050 (July 20)

- 1120 (Aug10) - 950 (October 2010) - 1050 (December 2010/Jan 2011)

BVSP is falling apart.

BSE is doing well. Indicating higher highs.

Copper is noncommittal - possibly because of the falling dollar.

Commodities are surging - because of the falling dollar. May lift the indices.

Commodities take indices up until mid October, then fall with market until October.

Long commodities in October?

May long food in October for long-term.