Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Positions

1. Have been short via TZA from Tuesday (bought 45.6). Sold too early today - at 49.5.

2. Will try to buy again around 50.2 or so. Targeting 64-65 on TZA in 2 weeks. Will exit at about 1020 on the SPX (about 12% down from current levels) on the Dow.

3. Making a list of stocks to buy in two weeks (around October 12).

I am looking for doubles in 2-3 weeks from date of purchase. Looking at TSL (at $4 or $5, not sure), SOL (1.6o?), JASO ( ),... These guys are trading at 3-4 times earnings, and have 6-7 days of short covering in them. May not buy at the bottom, but will try to buy around October 12. I think these guys will double (or more) in the two weeks of earnings season.

Warning: I think many of these have another 20% downside, so I definitely am not buying now!

TSL (at $4 or $5, not sure),
SOL (1.4o?),
JASO ( ),...
ANR ($15 or so)... target $30. A coal company and I hate coal, so maybe I won't buy. :(

UPDATE 9/30:
Currently considering this allocation: TSL 25% (at $5); ANR 25% (around $15); SOXL 50% (around SOX 286 or 302).



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