Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

update

Bullish:

$TNX is looking ST bullish.
Our business is booming.
RUT is decently strong.
Some equity valuations are dirt cheap, especially when compared to expected bond yields. Intelligent, long only managers should be buying here.


Bearish:
Today is new moon.
SSEC broke bear flag, leads SPX.
NYA and RUT both broke bear flag, look to be retracing to the line of the break.

Conclusion:

Further strength in the RUT would indicate that we are going to 1250-1260 on the ES. That would be a monster fake out for the bears.
Tomorrow will be the tell.

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