Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Big Picture

In the big picture, I am bullish Gold Miners for the next couple of months.

I am bearish equities for the next few months.  I expect 1000-1100 on the SP 500.

Here is one important divergence:
http://tinyurl.com/cfnlcsu

Having said this, I am not going to stay short equities very much longer. I will cash out of my short sooner rather than later and wait for a bounce to short.

Also, when the market really falls, then I don't think Gold miners will survive.

I will be watching for this as $GDX nears old highs.

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