10 year; 2 year; 6 month

10-year scenario

Big bull market coming in 1-2 years. Led by China, India, Australia, Brazil, Canada and then, later, U.S.

2-year scenario

Mortgage resets will peak in 2010 and then again in 2011, so fed has to keep rates low so economy doesn't crash.

Equities boomed because 1) short covering 2) commitment to low rate policy means they're the only game in town 3) Fed charged banks with buying 4) Dollar was crashing so big firms benefit from exports.

Now the Dollar is rising -- why? Dollar rising now in anticipation of correction in equities? Move away from risky assets at the end of the year? Still no correction in equities. Weird. But this sort of dollar move is big. We have never had this large of a move without continuation. That much is clear. A bell has rung. Listen to it.

Dollar hitting resistance now; dollar go will down for 1-5 days (end of year); Gold will pop. Equities will pop and end 2010 high.

Then for 2010, dollar will rise. There has never been such a large dollar move without continuation.

But why? Bonds are fucked. Where will the dollars go? They will go for safety, but not for long.

Fed will start talking about hiking rates when inflation comes. When market doesn't believe that Fed will hike rates. But Fed won't hike rates for now; maybe slow raise rates in end 2010.

Equities are over-valued.

Corporate profits will surprise to the upside for Q1 2010 and probably Q2.

6-month scenario

1. SPX and global equities should go down in 1-2 months.

2. SPX may hit 1145 or so before it goes down. Maybe 1200? Maybe not.

3. Blow off top in SPX and then GLD.

4. Should I short SPX or long GLD? For now, long GLD.

5. Buy LT (leap) Puts on SPX at 1140-45 or so?

6. China and India are in bull markets.

7. How can you buy LT Puts on the SPX? Why not buy Calls on Indo-Chin?

8. Why is BSE struggling?

9. Why is SSEC struggling?

10. The China guy won't short.

11. Great time for selling call options on equities.

Best-case scenario (in the Very ST)

Dollar rises 1 more day or falls Monday, 12/21; is at resistance.

Dollar falls. PMs rise; equities break out! (1120-1140). 1-3 last dollar down days.

1 week - 1 month out; Dollar rises, equities fall. Gold rises, but more slowly than before?