Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Forecast

USD - Consolidation - Down C wave in ABC correction to 77.8 (or 78), then bull flag up to 83. That is an 7% up move.

The US Dollar will move up to 83 or so (by mid-late Spring) as equity markets begin their decline some time before the end of January.

AUS/USD - Bullish for next 3-5 days, perhaps mid Jan up to 93. Maybe a double top. Then, in late Jan, it may crash more than EUR/USD (percent wise) because of China crash. At least to 82. (12% crash)

EUR/USD - This is my primary instrument. Up to almost 145 or 146 by Jan 5-10. Then down to 130 over the year as SPX crashes.

GBP/USD - not yet calculated.

SP500 - This bear market rally will top by mid-Jan between 1160 and 1170. Then down to 800-850 or so by late 2010.

2007-10 Bear Market ends by the end of 2010. The SPX decline from 1160 or so will end between 800-850. The decline will stops at around 1020 (W1) and 950 (W3) along the way.

Gold - Correction continues until Jan 8-15, 2010, or so. $1000 Gold should be bought. It will go up to $1350-1400 in Wave 1 of new bull to last through much of 2010. Probably up to $2000 in 2010.

Silver - $16.3 should be bought. This may be my Secondary instrument? This corresponds to SLV $15.75 or so.

TLT (U.S.) Government Bonds) - Big Multiple-year Bear Market has started. Wave 1 will end by mid Jan. Wave 2 will correct 25-38% of Wave 1. TLT will be bullish starting Jan up to late 2010 but probably not super bullish. I may prefer metals or EUR/USD.

TNX (U.S. Government Bond Rates) - Big, multiple-year Bull Market has started.



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