Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, December 18, 2009

12/18

Spx - no targets today.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. There will be a pause at 1.425, a bounce to $1.46 or so, then a fall to $1.40.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level looks like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 likely.

Google: Support at 565. Should go to 610. That should be the top of this bear market rally.


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