FraidAY

EUR/USD range held true yesterday - to 5-6 pips. Pretty good, huh?

The whole picture seems much clearer now. The dollar is retracing the breakout on the back of the Greek "plan." In the bigger picture, the dollar has retraced 50% of it's last, multi-month fall (50% retrace at 82.2 or so), and gone a little above. After this retrace, the dollar will surge -- on the back of risk returning to the markets. Look at the CRB; look at PC ratios, ... The first half of next week will not be kind to U.S. indices.

Remember, though, that fundamentally the dollar's ascent is still restricted by the awful debt condition of the United States. Fundamentally, the dollar can rise on the back of risk appetite, interest rates, or worse alternatives for the other currencies. For the first part of next week, the first of these three will take over.

The ES will top off today around 1167 or so, the EUR USD around 1.342 or so. Then the ES should fall to 1145-1150 on Monday or Tuesday, the EURUSD will have a terminal fall (for this move), and the Win will buy SLV and Citibank calls on Monday or Tuesday. In April, we will see the final move higher of this cyclical bull in the US indices (Wave 5 of 5). 1145 - 1220 or so. This will mirror Wave 1 of 5.

If anything changes, I will stop out of EURUSD at 1.3400. I doubt that I will have to do so.

Today's best guesses:

EUR/USD: 1.3360 -- 1.3210. changed at 7 a.m. EST to 1.3270 - 1.3420 -- 1.3330.

/ES 1160 - 1167 - 1158. (partial retrace then fall)

ES will fall through next Monday or Tuesday.

Will try to:

Sell AGQ at 54.3 -- this is stuff bought today at 52. 79. (Will buy next Monday for around $51._)

Sold at 53.85.

Sell GBPUSD? Sold at 1.4915.

Still holding EURUSD short from 1.3356. Will try to cover at 1.3050 and go long around 1.300.