Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Friday

Mistakes

1. Bought EUR/USD too soon - was going against the trend. Didn't wait for the trade to come my way. I thought I would get out with 20 pips or so; I was tired of waiting for the trade to come my way so I gambled for 20 pips or so from 1.3600 to 1.3630 on an expected retrace. Well, the retrace didn't go all the way to 1.636 because Angela Merkel remained obdurate and I am now 130 pips underwater (as of Monday 3/22). Lesson: WAIT for the optimal trade. 99% of trading is waiting.

2. Sold SLV Puts too soon -- what I had planned came to fruition, but I was nervous because of the earlier fiasco with EUR/USD.

3. Bought C April calls instead of Junes. Sold too soon, because I was afraid of a pullback. With Junes, I would have held strong.

Trades today:

1. Sold SLV Puts for a small profit. Went long AGQ at 55.3.

2. Bought C April calls. Target 4.5. Will add to this trade with June calls if it goes my way.

3. Holding EURUSD long. Will sell and go short, probably around 1.3600.



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