Look at this chart:
http://tinyurl.com/yc2bguj
This is the SP500 (in dotted green) with the 5 and 20 MA of CPC super-imposed from January 2007 to February 2008. Notice that between mid April and late July 2007 the SP500 kept rising, as the 20 day moving averages of CPC kept indicating a correction. This is typical of Wave 5s, when bullishness is rampant. I expect a smaller version of that to end this cyclical bull. I expect that we are in Wave 5 of this bull right now.
This overbought phase in the chart above lasted from April 15 to July 15 or so, a period of about 3 months. For three months, the market was choppy but climbing. I believe that we are in a similar bullish phase right now, that will last 1.5 months or so. I also believe that we are already at least half a month into this phase; hence, according to this estimate, we will end this bull move in late April.
There is no point shorting this move now, but because there is limited upside in the overall index, one should only go long on pullbacks.
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