Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Thursday Outlook and Plan

Best Guesses:

1. EURUSD will fall under 1.31 by Monday or Tuesday. 1.3290 - 1.339--1.3030. (terminal move may go below 1.3030 to 1.2980 or so.)

2. Silver will fall to $16.2 and Gold to $1060 or so.

3. SPX will fall to 1135-1140 by Monday-Tuesday.

4. C will fall to $4.02 or so.

I will try to:

1. Sell EURUSD around 1.339. Sold at 1.3356. (Couldn't sell at 1.339 - didn't get that high.)
2. Buy Silver around 16.2. Bought at 16.6. Will sell Friday and try to buy again around 16.40.
3. Buy C around $4. C is nowhere near $4. Will try to buy next Tuesday.
4. Buy EURUSD around 1.300. Next Tuesday-Wednesday.

Treasury auction today had a very low bid-ask. That's why the surge in TNX today. This is another reason why the market will fall, because if the market keeps going up, the government won't be able to sell its debt. Of course this fall is a more long-term development. Another auction tomorrow, which is another factor that's got me bullish on PMs in the near-term.

No comments: