USD Post - Post in Progress

I see the following alternatives for the immediate direction of the USD:

1. a. The first is that the dollar does not, in fact, make a big move next week; in this case, one alternative would be that the Euro bottoms around 1.3200. 1.3550 - 350 = 1.3200. I give this a 40% probability.

1 b. Another alternative is that the EURUSD has bottomed at 1.3267, and that the dollar breakout is a false breakout. In this case, EURUSD should still descend to 1.338 or so at least, and probably to 1.3335 or so. I give this a 30% probability.

2. The other alternative is that the dollar will rebound big right away. In this case, EURUSD should descend to a minimum of 1.3050 before a correction and probably to 1.2980. 20% probability.

3. The third option is that the Euro will rise up to 1.650 before any correction. I give this a 10% probability.

As you can see, I slightly favor the first course (1 a.) for the immediate future.

This does not mean that I think the dollar has topped. The Euro will have problems in the future, with all the PIGS, problems it has no means for solving (as far as I can tell). But in the near future (1-2 weeks) I think there is a floor underneath - at least until we see what will happen to Greek efforts to sell debt and how equity markets perform in the U.S. However, I do think that equity markets will outperform in April and that risk levels will stay low. Hence, I do think that the dollar will make it's last move for the next few days.

This should mean strength in equities and PMs, for the next few days.

Evidence:

Silver Candlesticks Friday and Monday 3/28. Awesome big green bar on Friday. (Could be ascribed to dollar retrace.)

EURUSD candlestick Friday. Same as above.

Daily RSI 14 divergence on EURUSD bottom. (May not be bottom. Trends don't turn so easy.)

U.S. Debt. Look at the goddamn 2 year TNX chart. A thing of beauty.

Gold weekly trend line, solid move up from touching it.

Gold miners bounced up from TL.

EURUSD overbought on 2 hour RSI - at least a small correction coming soon.

Gold overbought on 2 hour RSI. SLV overbought.

Too cozy. One more touch or fall for Gold.

EUR 1.32 terminal move? Not much strength left in dollar?

Dollar 2 closes above breakout level.

Critical levels on EURUSD - 1.3450, 1.3360, 1.3330, ...,