Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Thursday

Thoughts:

SPX is in Wave 3 of 5. Pullbacks will be brief. Buy 1152 on the ES.

EURUSD may be rolling over but SPX health may support. No free fall yet?

Silver and Gold bearish ST. Silver toppy at 17.5. Target 16.8. CPI data out at 8:30, which should be bearish for PMs, so prices will have fallen by market open.


Economic Releases:

8:30 a.m. CPI
10 a.m. Philly Fed Manufacturing


I will try to:

1. Sell BGZ (at a loss) at 14.3. Bought at 14.48.
Sold at 14.14.

2. Buy SLV Puts at open. Target 16.8 on YI; 16.5 on SLV. Buy ZSL around 4.1.
Bought at Silver 17.47.

3. Scalp EURUSD - Sell 1.37; buy 1.3650
Too choppy.

4. Buy C April and June calls on weakness. Around 3.95 then around 3.76. Target is 4.50.


Yesterday:

Made a few bucks on SLV Puts, lost a bit on EURUSD. Still underwater on BGZ, will exit today.
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