I think the dollar will be weak in the short-term (1-2 weeks) and strong in the medium-term (1-3 months). In the short-term, the Euro may be stronger until 1.384. I personally don't see the Euro going beyond that level. It could, but I don't see it.
The Australian dollar will be strong in the long-term, and in the short-term. I think its bull market will continue for another 4-5 years, as a Commodity bull market started in October 2009. (Now is a really good long-term entry.) The AUD/USD is making a nice bull flag on the weekly chart.
In the short-term, the AUS/USD is a buy (until at least .9241 (175 pips or so)) where it meets a falling trend line that may cause a bit of resistance (the bull flag line). I believe that this high will come within the next week, and should coincide with a high in Gold, the EURO and the SPX. This will be a ST high.
To conclude:
In the long-term, I am bullish AUD/USD.
In the medium-term, I am bearish EUR/USD.
In the short-term, for the next week or two, I am bearish the USD and so I can be bullish the Euro, AUD and PMs. I will sell PMs around Gold 1155 to wait and see.
I think that after 1160, Gold will come down to 1130-1140, after which it will go straight up to 1300. This will be accompanied by the SPX going up to 1200-1240, which should all happen by May 1.
Basically, for the next four years or so, whenever the Euro and SPX are bullish, the AUD will be VERY bullish. The AUD/USD will probably predict moves in and roughly match the trends of the Hong Kong, Australia, Brazil and Indian stock indices.
Monday: Dollar rises EUR bottom at 1.357 or so, ES range 1025-1140. Gold 1135 -?
Trade: Buy GBPUSD 1.5075 (taking out short position). Buy EURUSD 1.357.
Tues Dollar falls; ES rises to 1140
Wed: Dollar falls; bottoms? SPX tops 1150-1160?
Thurs: Dollar falls; bottoms? SPX tops?
Fri: Dollar falls/rises. bottoms? SPX tops?
No comments:
Post a Comment