Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Monday- Thursday Plan

Monday night update: Commodities are looking bearish. OIH looks like it has rolled over. Gold miners (especially the juniors) are looking terrible. Financials are looking good. Classic bullish breakout. Sector rotation is key. TRIN on the NAS is recovering, may mean further highs ahead. TRIN on the SPX is still quite overbought, but could be even more overbought (was earlier in the bull market). After a pullback, the SPX could soar. 5 DMA of CPC indicates big pullback imminent, but 10 and 13 DMA suggests further strength ahead. Negative divergence on New highs. Plan is to short EUR-USD, but buy C calls on a pull back.


Will try to:

- Sell C Puts at around C 3.82. Sold at 3.88. Missed 3.82 (overslept!)

- Sell BGZ around 1140 on the /ES. Sold at 1141 or so. Will try to buy around ES 1156.
- Bought BGZ at $14.48, 3/16 at 11:25 a.m.

- Buy AGQ around SLV 16.2; YI 16.5. Target is Jan highs on SLV and YI.
AGQ will be around 53.2.

- Buy SLW calls around the same price.

- Buy C June 4 Calls around $0.25.

- Sell EURUSD around 1.373. Sold at 1.3728. Underwater but okay. Will close at 1.37 and wait and see.

To investigate: $PLATINUM

3/16 11 a.m.: Bought SLV Puts at 17.41 or so on the continuous contract (/YI). Target $17.10. May go much lower, but I'm being conservative because ultimately I'm looking for a long. This is risky and I'm a bit nervous about this trade. Very ST overbought and at my initial target for a pullback, but has held channel and may have finished correction.

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