Friday, Weekend Update; Silver Target 19.5

Trades

1. Covered GBPUSD at 1.534 for a 60 pip loss. Staying off forex for now.

2. Shorted Silver (at $18.25 or so) via ZSL (bought at average price of 3.74).

I was anticipating a correction in Silver to around 17.8, which I am no longer sure about. If this happens, I will buy it with AGQ, which should be around $59. My target for AGQ (before a bigger correction) is around 66.2.

There are two alternatives:

1. That 1200 is a temporary pit stop which pushes the SPX back down to 1180 or so before a final push up to 1230-1250.

2. We go straight to 1220 or so before a major correction.

I suspect 1 will happen. If 1 happens, then Silver should still correct to 18.2 or so. I will probably buy back most or all of my ZSL at Silver around 18.2 so that I have dry powder for the bigger top I am anticipating. This means I will accept break even, small loss, or pennies on my ZSL.

Medium-term (next one-two months) I am still bullish on PMs. However, as said earlier, they will correct with the general stock market, either on Monday-Tuesday around 1200 on the SPX or within the next week around 1220 or so.

Basic scenario: I think we will small-correct before earnings season and larger correct after earnings season (last week of April).

The next two months will be choppy - large up down moves.

All the best!