Outlook
Money is flowing into commodities. The AUDUSD just broke out of overhead TL resistance. Is in the process of retesting. I am expecting a positive test, but we are in a resistance zone. This is the big trade here. Long PMs, long commodities, long AUD/USD.
However, in the VSR (today and tomorrow maybe) the USD may rise. There is potential for a ST top in the US indices on Wednesday. This is not clear, but some sort of consolidation in the indices is necessary after a bunch of recent breakouts. Also remember that earnings season is near, and we need a little pull back for a major run ahead of Tech earnings around the week of 4/25.
Tech is the other big trade here. Long AAPL at around 233? 226-7 would be a great entry, but I'm not sure how you would get it. Long BRCM?
The EUR will likely fall against the USD, but in fits and starts. This is a very crowded trade, with lots of non commercials, but its also a fundamentally sound trade. Right now, I expect it to fall to 1.31 or so, within the next day or so.
The GBP will also fall, but it's not in terminal decline and may show some strength against the USD after this VSR fall.
Trades
1. Covered EURUSD at 1.349. Mistake.
2. Shorted GBPUSD at 1.5275. Target 1.5010, but it may go down to 1.4934 or so today or tomorrow.
I may try to:
1. Buy SLV calls around SLV 17.3; Gold 1130; Silver $ 17.6.
2. Buy AGQ around $58.7.
3. Buy AUD/USD at around 0.9240. Target 1.1113.
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