Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Why the Dollar Will be Strong (in the SR)

- It is the funding currency!

- Where else will people park their money? In PMs? Sure. But you can't give PMs to your grocer to buy milk! (At least not in the SR!)

- In every crisis, money goes into the dollar.

- Yes, this time it could be different, in the intermediate-term, but in the first response to the crisis, the dollar will rise, as will Gold and Silver. And then, when dollar debt becomes an issue, gold and silver will rise even more. The dollar will still rise against the Euro, but maybe not against the Aussie, the Loonie (Canadian $), the Japanese Yuan and emerging market currencies.

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