Win's Way: State of the Market Review (Incomplete)

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

State of the Market Review (Incomplete)

1. BSE is at classic 5 MA daily short position. Weekly MACD and RSI is also bearish.

2. Brazil weekly very bearish RSI and MACD.

3. Copper weekly bearish RSI.

4. CPC and CPCE 5 MA just now indicating a turn; 10 MA barely dented; both very bearish.

5. TRIN indicating possible selling peak. Bounce possible!

6. CRB 5 MA daily somewhat bearish, but MACD making pattern of higher lows; trending higher!

7. CRB weekly looking very weak.

8. Gold daily pattern of higher lows on MACD!!

9. Gold:SPX ratio - making a bottom?

10. Gold: UDN held support at retest of prior highs. Bullish!

11. Dow RSI making a lower high??

12. $GYX (Industrial Metals) indicating daily RSI has peaked but perhaps higher prices to come after dip.

13. MSEMX death cross! 5 MA very bearish. What's up?

14. NAAD (NASD ADV-DECL) 10 MA has small bearish divergence.

15. $NDX lower RSI high? bearish divergence?

16. $NDX closed at prior highs - pre Lehman highs. VERY IMP resistance.

17. NYA bearish MACD, bearish RSI. !!!

18. Cumulative NYAD (adv-decline) - bearish divergence!

19. 10 MA NYAD bearish divergence!

20. NYHL 5 and 13 MA - bearish divergence!

21. NAUD (NASD adv-decline volume) bearish divergence.

22. NDX making lower RSI high?

23. NA200R - stocks over 200 DMA - bearish divergence

24. New highs - bearish divergence.

25. NYMO - bearish divergence.

26. NYUD - terrible bearish divergence on 5 MA.

27. RUT - could be bullish, but can't say. At resistance. Same as NDX.

28.RUT: SPX bullish

29. SLV - buy the coming dip? Weekly MACD looks bullish.

30. SPX - bearish RSI divergence.

31. Shanghai daily chart has fallen apart. Any strength should be sold.

32. TNX (ten year rates) and TYX (30 year rates) indicating trouble ahead. What does the bond market know? Up valuation in Remnimbi coming? This would be bullish for PMs.

33. Dollar - inconclusive.

34. EUR/USD -- Look at the EUR/USD - it is falling apart. Maybe a small retrace to 1.3300 and then a crap out to 1.31 or so.

1.3200 - 1.325 - 1.300 (tomorrow). 1.3000 will likely coincide with about

That should mark the end of Wave 4 of this bull in the SPX - at about 1170-1180 on the SPX.

Conclusion - ST bearish. Even if there is strength tomorrow.

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Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way

Lessons

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

State of the Market Review (Incomplete)

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