Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

No Spike Yet; Wave 3 of 5 to continue?

I really want to see a spike. If today is the end of Wave 3 of 5, then we should get a spike up. If we don't get a spike, we may go higher tomorrow.

AAPL earnings are next Tuesday, and we can drift up with minor pullbacks until then and hit 1230 or so on the SPX. That might be the end of Wave 3 of 5.

But NDX has already hit the upper horizontal line on this chart.

http://tinyurl.com/yl2x6ys

and that is significant.

p.s. I do think that this topping process will take a few days -- perhaps until April 20-25. I don't think the market will collapse before AAPL earnings on April 20. I will take profits on my May Puts at the first weakness and re add June Puts on subsequent highs.

I will consider buying a few AAPL Calls or Puts tomorrow, to sell before earnings on Tuesday afternoon. They will be worth more before earnings because of increased volatility.


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