Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Monday/Tuesday

Trades on Monday

1. Sold small part of SLV position at a slight loss; just freeing up some capital for possible lower prices.

2. Bought GS June Puts at EOD (small position) at around $164. I expect GS to open high tomorrow, after good earnings, and GS to go up to 170 tomorrow. Didn't remember that earnings were tomorrow when I bought. Oh well. It doesn't change my basic scenario of further weakness ahead.

3. Sold earlier AAPL calls for $0.40. Bought AAPL calls at 244 or so. Will sell on Tuesday.

Thoughts

Correction is not over, even if tomorrow opens bullish. I will use any strength on Tuesday to sell a little more of my long SLV position, so I can reload at lower prices.

Gold will rise to 1145, IYR to 50.9, GS to 168 and AAPL to 250 before further correction on Wednesday.


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