Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Week Ahead 4/5 onwards


- I think that the USD will rise on Sunday and Monday, and the Euro should fall to 1.33 or so by Tuesday. I will try to short this move in the Euro. This fall should give a nice opportunity to load up on PMs. I will buy around Gold 1120 even though Gold may fall to 1107 or so.

- The ES should fall with the move up in the dollar. This would be a good opportunity to buy. At this point I expect the downside to be limited to 1150 or so, but it's possible that we will fall to 1140-1145.

I may try to:

1. Sell EURUSD around 1.349. Buy 1.345, then sell a bounce. I expect 1.3300 on this move down and probably 1.3200 by mid week. Sold at 1.3496.

2. Buy SLV calls around SLV 17.0; Gold 1120; Silver $ 17.6.

3. Buy AGQ around $58.7.


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