Well, I must look like a big loser now, with my Dow 13,500 -13,800 by end November prediction. I'm realizing exactly why most wise men in this business DON'T write these predictions. While the overall thoughts (and instincts) behind the predictions may be spot on, you can't really predict the exact timing. There are too many variables involved.
This doesn't mean we can't project what the market will do, and correspondingly that we can't make long-term purchases. We can. We just need to be careful - as I have been more often than not - and understand that our projections aren't gospel, and certainly not our timing.
Well - having said all that - I'm still looking for a bounce next week, and expecting one (possibly the same bounce) to end the year. The bounce will be led, as I've often said, by Big Tech (wow, I'm acquiring that "told you so tone of all these market prognosticators! Nooo!!!).
Buys for next week:
IBN - LONG TERM CALLS
GOOG - 5 SHARES SO I HAVE A HUNDRED.
NG/ AU Jan or March calls
Possible DIA 130 Puts, if market rises to much, too fast
Sales for next week:
1. Covered Dec call Goog 680-700? This one is to cover for a little insurance + for maximum gains. So, for instance, If Goog is at 700 by Wednesday, I will sell this at $700 for $30 or so.
Average purchase price of shares - $646 (Nov 20 purchase)
Net gain by December expiration (12/21 or so):
If Goog is at $780 - $8,000 (This would be the worst case for me, and if I saw this happening, I would try to buy the call back.
If Goog is at $730 - $8,000
If Goog is at $700 - $8,000
If Goog is at $650 - $3400
If Goog is at $620 - $400
If Goog is at $600 - ($1600); which scenario I don't care too much about, because I'm happy holding Google for the long-run.
So, I'm covered.
2. Uncovered call Goog 720 -$750 for $10? This one is hopefully going to expire worth nothing.
3. Uncovered LFC Dec 85 Calls to balance out the Calls I own. (Look at the FXI or LFC chart. Shit's goin down for a bit.) Perhaps sell these on a high?
PUTS
Goog $550 Puts
Baidu $200 Puts?
Apple $140 Puts
I'LL WANT TO BE CAREFUL WITH ALL THIS - I'M NOT A FULL-TIME TRADER!
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