Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Moody Monday Morning

BUY SOON:

1. QQQQ and DIA Dec Puts. Is a bigger fall coming?

2. NG/ AUY December Calls

3. Barrick Gold?


RESEARCH:

Gold Miners.


BUY SLOWLY:

Long-term LFC, BIDU, IBN calls

The biggest thing to watch out for this week is Dow 13000. If the Dow closes below 13,000, it will go straight down to 12,500 very soon. Which might actually mean the end of the great bull market. But I think we are going to hold at 13,000. Not enough bad news to break the bull market. So, as opposed to my position one month ago, I am actually bullish on Internet and China on a 2-3 month time frame.

I am selling all my AAPL shares at a small profit ($1/ share, after factoring in the price of the November option sold) to buy options on LFC, BIDU, and IBN and Put protection. I am an options guy, and I need to take advantage of this great opportunity. I already have a 100 shares of Google in the LT portfolio, and I plan to keep selling covered calls on that as it shoots up.

Of course, it seems as if this leaves me extremely exposed to one sector - Internet stocks, but that's not necessarily bad, because it fits my bias. Also, LFC, BIDU, and IBN are foreign plays. BIDU is as much a China play as an internet stock.

I want to wait for the Beta on BIDU to come down a bit before buying options (want the calls to be a bit cheaper). I think that will happen; BIDU is a momentum play and the momentum will go away for about a month or so. LFC might be in the same basket. IBN might not. By the way, IBN call premiums are ridiculous!

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