Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

It's the Economy, Stupid

Two interesting, and quite bearish, articles on the U.S. economy by the Economist:

http://economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10134118

http://economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10134077

The question is: How much will this affect the Stock Market, and especially the multinationals.

The bullish case is that this fear will create buying opportunities in large caps.

The bearish case is that the sinking ship will take everything down with it.

I am siding with the bulls on this one, but I do want to wait for opportunities before investing, buy mostly LT calls, and stay in cash as much as possible.

Two trading points:
1. Revised numbers on GDP are out on November 29, and, according to the Economist, they will likely show close to 5% growth in the last quarter. That will be a great short-term driver, and a great selling point. It may also signal a ST top.

2. I am considering selling one more of my Jan 175 AAPL calls. I have been re-investing those riskier calls in longer-term, more in the money calls and Puts.

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