Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Ha!

Nice bounce - I asked for one, and I got it.

I think that there is a good possibility that this bounce will explode all the way up to 13,800 in two to three weeks, at which point we will start to again worry about the Fed meeting on December 11. So, 13700 - 14,000 by November 30, and then we might come down to reality - about 500 points, I'd say.

So, here's how we will play this scenario:

1. Buy Puts as we go, but ESPECIALLY past Dow 13,500

2. Try one lucky shot. Wednesday - Buy 5- 10 Infy November 45 calls for about 0.20 each. Batterred stock might jump to $48 by Friday, which will mean 1000% gains. Will play this with a hundred or two hundred bucks.

3. Bought some more Crox March 45 calls, on an analyst upgrade (JP Morgan). BTW, most analysts are still very bullish on Crox. If the economy doesn't tank, this stock will zoom in 2008.

4. May exit the Google caller, and sell Google, to free up money to buy more Apple and Crox today. Might even buy a google caller. Yay!

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