Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

IBN, LFC, AAPL, GOOG

Top picks for the next six months. Buy LT calls on the dips:

IBN – Totally unconnected to U.S. Subprime or mortgage crisis

LFC – Again totally unconnected to U.S. Is one of the best Chinese ADRs, for a number of reasons. It’s off because Hong Kong is falling. Hong Kong is falling because it went up too fast in expectation of the Chinese funds outflow. Chinese funds outflow got delayed by the authorities, so Hong Kong is tanking. But the Chinese fund outflow will happen in 2008 – the Chinese have to cool the crazy Shanghai market. So LFC will climb.

AAPL – consumer electronics are still selling. The I-Phone is the favored holiday gift.

GOOG- people across the world aren’t going to stop advertising because the U.S. Economy are slowing down. In fact, they are just starting to advertise on the internet.


Also look at:

BIDU – Somewhat overvalued, but possibly with justification. Buy at about $300. Don’t pay too much for this guy or the volatility will give you a heart attack.

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