Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Retail - Don't Get Too Bullish

Black Friday was good, but it is not a bellwether for the season. We had a strong Black Friday last year, but sales slowed after that.

I think retail will be good in patches - bad in others. Walmart may do well.

My overall opinion on the economy is that several corporations are stronger than reflected by their positions on the stock market now. However, I am expecting a rally, which I will short. I will be researching Proshares Short and Ultra Short funds. My overall outlook on the U.S. economy is quite bearish - because of housing and mortgage.

I also wouldn't be surprised if there is talk of a World slowdown next Spring or summer, or fall.

I will change my Bullish strategy and short the upcoming rally soon.

p.s. Apple is kicking ass.

No comments: