Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Comment on the Economy

An observation: The Japanese Yen DJI inverse relationship is clear. However, what also seems clear, from recent month charts, is that both the DJI and the Yen are trending upwards. Any one have an answer to this?

I expect the NASDAQ 100 to continue out-performing earnings expectations, through 2008. I also expect select Dow large caps (BA and MSFT for instance) to do quite well - just as I see the consumer getting increasingly pinched, housing falling apart, and the credit crisis continuing.

What's your outlook on this?

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