Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, November 16, 2007

RIMM - Alert

RIMM's next earnings are December 20. December options expire December 22. Might be interesting to pick up a couple RIMM December calls on dips in the next couple of weeks, even if I have to get out of Apple to do so. Greater potential upside for RIMM in the short run.

Reasons to be cautious: RIMM is also over-valued compared to AAPL (look at the one-year chart of both companies and the pop RIMM got when it split), so it would help to be careful and to buy on the dips, if there are any. Right now, December RIMM options are going crazy because of a stupid rumor that IBM will buy RIMM. Once that quiets down on Tuesday or so, the option volatility will drop.

RIMM is already selling in China and India. Apple is not yet in China and India. I'm fairly certain that RIMM will make a killing in India and China. It will therefore have a good quarter, reporting high numbers from CHINDIA, and up guidance.

As usual, I expect Big Tech (AAPL, GOOG, FSLR) will come back post RIMM earnings. It's ok to pay a little premium to buy Big Tech December calls.

I am planning on selling a Google covered call some time in the next month and will set the call price accordingly - i.e., in expectation of this end of year bump.

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